Africa moves from supplier to rule-setter in minerals trade

Over the past two years, African governments have tightened rules on raw mineral exports, demanding local processing and signalling a new assertiveness in the continent’s engagement with global investors.

“Africa is no longer just accepting deals, it is setting the terms,” said Solomon Muyeka of the African Minerals and Geosciences Centre.

From Lusaka to Harare, this shift is reshaping strategies for investors in cobalt, lithium, copper, and rare earths. Zambia’s Mines Minister, Paul Kabuswe, told the BBC in July: “We want partners who will help us process, not just extract,” after signing a cooperation framework with Saudi Arabia.

Zimbabwe has announced a ban on raw lithium exports from 2027, requiring local processing. Namibia, Ghana, Nigeria, and others have introduced similar measures, forcing companies to build refineries, transfer technology, and create jobs locally rather than treating African mines as supply pits.

Regional coordination

African governments are also coordinating efforts. In 2022, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) launched a joint Electric Vehicle Battery Council, backed by the African Development Bank, to build a regional value chain. Since then, the council has moved into planning, identifying sites for cathode precursor plants, cell assembly lines, and logistics hubs to maximise value on the continent.

Morocco joined the initiative in late 2024, bringing its established automotive sector into the mix. Together, the three countries have outlined a trilateral e-mobility roadmap expected to be formalised this year.

Market challenges

Cobalt prices fell into structural oversupply in late 2024, prompting Kinshasa to impose a temporary export ban in early 2025. At the same time, battery technology is shifting toward lithium iron phosphate chemistries, reducing cobalt demand. Analysts say industrial policy, investment guarantees, and infrastructure development are increasingly shaping partnerships.

Special Economic Zones, local content rules, and coordinated export management are seen as key tools to turn Africa’s mineral wealth into factories and jobs, Muyeka said.

Continental leverage

Africa is also leveraging continental coordination through initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The African Union is pushing for harmonised laws to strengthen bargaining power. Namibia’s first lithium shipment under the AfCFTA framework in June illustrates how critical minerals are being integrated into continental trade.

The International Energy Agency projects cobalt demand for batteries will rise 150% by 2030, while copper demand could double. Africa already supplies more than two-thirds of the world’s cobalt and half of its manganese, according to the African Development Bank. Lithium projects in Zimbabwe, Mali, and Namibia are expected to place Africa among the world’s top five suppliers by 2027.

Foreign interest and tougher negotiations

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, China, the US, and Europe are all seeking entry into Africa’s mineral markets. But governments are setting stricter conditions. Zambia now ties new mining licences to local smelting. The DRC is reviewing contracts signed under previous administrations, while Zimbabwe requires beneficiation plans before expanding lithium operations.

African capital is also being mobilised, with Botswana’s sovereign wealth fund taking stakes and the Africa Finance Corporation backing projects across West and Central Africa.

Shifting global competition

The US, traditionally behind China, is investing in technology-driven ventures such as AI-powered exploration in the DRC. China, which controls around 80% of global refining, is expanding lithium refining in Zimbabwe and rare earth projects in Tanzania. Europe has tied its Critical Raw Materials Act to African supply agreements.

“Beneficiation laws, regional councils, AfCFTA leverage, tougher negotiations, local financing and AU frameworks are changing the continent’s role from supplier to rule-setter,” Muyeka said.

The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates that capturing just 10% more value in cobalt and lithium chains could earn the continent an extra US$11 billion annually by 2030. Muyeka argues that deeper coordination under the African Union and AfCFTA is key to turning global competition into long-term gain.